June 11, 2011
New Project of ATOX
Japanese Seismic Catastrophe March 11, 2011
"Chronicle of An Earthquake Foretold"
World Seismic Hot News"Low-Frequency Microseisms at Japan Islands: Before and After 11 March of 2011" by Alexey A. Lyubushin. (Updated February 12, 2012)
"Low-Frequency Microseisms at Japan Islands: Before and After 11 March of 2011" by Alexey A. Lyubushin. The analysis of low-frequency seismic noise multi-fractal properties from broadband network F-net in Japan (Fig.1) allowed a hypothesis about approaching Japan Islands to a future seismic catastrophe to be formulated at the middle of 2008.
"Microseismic Noise before and after Great Japan Earthquake 11 March of 2011" by Alexey Lyubushin. Field of seismic noise after 11 of March 2011 is analyzed each 3-4 weeks with a purpose of dynamic estimate of seismic hazard.
The Great Japanese Earthquake. By B.Levin, I.Tikhonov, M. Rodkin. Moscow. Russian Nature, v.11. 2011.)
The Tokai earthquakes are major earthquakes that have occurred regularly with an interval of 100 to 150 years in the Tokai region of Japan. The Tokai segment has been struck by earthquakes in 1498, 1605, 1707 and 1854. Given the historic regularity of these earthquakes, Kiyoo Mogi in 1969 pointed out that another great shallow earthquake was possible in the "near future"...
Strength PredictionSynchronization increasing as a flag for approaching to catastrophe:
Decreasing of mean multi-fractal singularity spectra support width Δα and increasing of multiple correlation Κ between variations of mean Δα from different groups of stations.
Thus, after the Hokkaido earthquake of September 25, 2003 (M = 8.3), a considerable synchronization of the variations in the multi-fractal parameters of the microseisms took place and was preserved at the same level up to the seismic catastrophe of March 11, 2011 (M = 9.0). This fact allowed to make a hypothesis at 2008 that the Hokkaido 2003 event, notwithstanding its power, could be only a foreshock of a still stronger earthquake forming in the region of Japan's islands.
Fig.2. Mean value of Δα from all stations after coming to Δt = 1min, estimated within moving time window of the length 40 days since the beginning of 1997 till 26 of May 2011. The jump in Δα values after seismic catastrophe is evident.